The All New Hat > The Bookie Thread

[Don Fonte]

2 minutes ago, rocket_scientist said:

It was indeed. I thought 1/4 was nailed on for the home win, 37.5% better than SP.

Need either Norwich or Dundee to wash my face tonight. 

I need Man Utd on a separate bet, otherwise it's a shocker of a day. Although likewise Dundee could save it.

[Don Fonte]

31 minutes ago, rocket_scientist said:

It was indeed. I thought 1/4 was nailed on for the home win, 37.5% better than SP.

Need either Norwich or Dundee to wash my face tonight. 

Dundee 2-1 up.

[Don Fonte]

Ok it's an ok day.

Terrific 

[Don Fonte]

21 minutes ago, rocket_scientist said:

Late Man U winner helps the Hat's luckiest and best punter ??

Luckiest for sure.

[Matt Armstrong's Dog]

£10 in-play win bet on St. Mirren (13/2) and Celtic (1/6). £88 potential return. 

[Don Fonte]

Staked - £35

Returned - £30.89

[Studebaker-90]

Another two shockers with Barcelona especially losing out at 1/3 odds. 

[Matt Armstrong's Dog]

Bet here inoo....£450 if Newcastle draw. Offered £250 inoo, take it or leave it?

[Studebaker-90]

Leave it 

[Matt Armstrong's Dog]

7 minutes ago, Studebaker-90 said:

Leave it 

I took it loon, £317 for a ton bet. Liverpool are not that great.

[daytripping]

Cash out is offered as it makes the bookies money, ALWAYS ignore. You might score now and then but will lose using it in the long run.

[daytripping]

On 12/29/2020 at 8:04 PM, Don Fonte said:

Saw them at 8/15 just as it started.

Not the easiest picking winners just now.

Use over 1.5 goals instead of trying to pick odds on winners.

[Matt Armstrong's Dog]

1 minute ago, daytripping said:

Cash out is offered as it makes the bookies money, ALWAYS ignore. You might score now and then but will lose using it in the long run.

Very true, and I am pissed off. But I am so happy I identified a niche that Liverpool are not that very good to make some money?

[daytripping]

1 minute ago, rocket_scientist said:

Does it not depend on the outcomes?

No. Bookies use algorithms, long run they'll always benefit from it and the punter lose. It wouldn't exist otherwise, just another tool for them to part your money. 

[daytripping]

3 minutes ago, rocket_scientist said:

Why?

Lot of games, short space of time, upsets happen, goals still get scored.

[daytripping]

5 minutes ago, rocket_scientist said:

What is the average odds for +1.5 goals?

Better in play, not great at the start but winners better than a loser. How many coupons did Barca break the other night.

[daytripping]

3 minutes ago, rocket_scientist said:

I've never used the over/under no. of goals (nor btts) so I'm just wondering what the average odds you get for +1.5 pre match?

Depends the game but it's a good market to play in, especially in play where both teams are having shots on goal.

[daytripping]

1 minute ago, rocket_scientist said:

So how do you make money? Singles, doubles?

Is this a strategy you've used yourself? If so you'll know the average odds. 

Doubles to try and make up an evens bet is what I do, maybe a couple 1/2 or close.

[daytripping]

Santiago Morning v Nublense

Dep. Santa Cruz v San Luis

One more goal needed in each, pays 1.05 just now.

[daytripping]

2 minutes ago, rocket_scientist said:

Are you in profit with this strategy?

Win some lose some, if I was more disciplined following the stats I'd profit but I lose focus.

[daytripping]

The bet I just posted has both teams attacking with lots of shots.

[daytripping]

3 minutes ago, rocket_scientist said:

Are you +1.5 and +2.5 on these two?

I'm not but it just won, was an easy pick out. Just an example.

Lot going on just now, spending money on house renovation plans, no time for bookies.  

[daytripping]

8 minutes ago, rocket_scientist said:

What was your winning bet then, if it wasn't +1.5 x +2.5?

It was that many goals, at the time I posted returned just over evens. I meant I didn't place a bet, was busy ordering wood floor samples!! lol

[daytripping]

2 minutes ago, rocket_scientist said:

So 1.05 was an estimate then?

Did you mean a 5% return on stake?

105% return on stake.

Since I posted both games have had 2 more goals but would have been risky, probs looking at 400%.

[daytripping]

Just now, rocket_scientist said:

You've lost me. I thought we were getting a new strategy for beating the bookie. 

Same as you guys are trying, low odds doubled to make a larger return. I think waiting to see stats and how the game is going is better than picking days in advance, plus using goals scored. Got to take every advantage, bookies are billion pound companies, they offer what they make money off. I think in play and real discipline is the only way to beat them. How many times have you said a goal is coming here when watching a game, use that.

[daytripping]

2 minutes ago, rocket_scientist said:

Not that you could've known anyway what the payout would've been as you never placed a bet. 

I put the bet in my account, that told me the odds, got to 1.9 before the first goal.

[daytripping]

6 minutes ago, rocket_scientist said:

Where we have an advantage is picking value when the odds first come out. This often nets 30-50%+ better returns (if it comes in).

I prefer picking on stats and knowledge on the leagues that tend to score goals, South America is a minefield but Chile and Bolivia lower leagues tend to have goals, same as Belgian lower leagues. Bookies ovs know and price accordingly but stats if you're patient can pay off. I like a beer so often strategy goes out the window and bookie gets richer, such is life.

[Quagmire]

Over 1.5 team goals is on average the same as a straight win. Maybe just slightly less at times i.e. if a teams 8/13 the >1.5 TG might be 4/7, 8/15. Dependent on the teams goals for stats. I use it on the odd occasion. Just takes away the 1-0 win result. 

[maryhilldon]

17 hours ago, daytripping said:

I prefer picking on stats and knowledge on the leagues that tend to score goals, South America is a minefield 

Avoid Brazil and Argentina if you're looking for goals,  rarely more than 1 or 2 goals. Although the last twice I've betted on under 2.5 goals it's been fucked after 30 mins,  finishing 6-2 and 5-3!   

[Don Fonte]

Saturday - Montrose to beat Forfar - 1/2