Scottish Independence Referendum 2

[maryhilldon]

The very fact the establishment down south fought tooth and nail to keep Scotland in the union tells you all you need to know. It was self-interest, as always.

[maryhilldon]

I just can’t get my head round why scots would not want to self determine.

Too many thick huns and non-Scot domeciles, cant see it happening at all unfortunately.

[Parklife]

Too many thick huns and non-Scot domeciles, cant see it happening at all unfortunately.

Too many tories in Aberdeen and Edinburgh, you mean.

[V for Vendetta]

Second referendum will be a waste of time unfortunately.

 

People in Scotland have already proven they are too lazy, too feart, too stupid or just plain too in love with the myth of empire.

 

Will be the same result or maybe even more votes for the NO side.

[caledonia]

Independence is normal being ruled by another country is not yet you would think its the other way round.

 

This is all thanks to the media but as more and more people are social media savvy its slowly changing.

 

Also mainly older against with younger for so every day that passes and older die off its changing as well.

[Jocky Balboa]

So, now that the SNP conference has been and gone, what are the verdicts?

 

While I acknowledge the argument that they should wait until the "fog of Brexit clears", the SNP leadership seem very comfortable in their (for now) impregnable position as gatekeepers at Holyrood. It would take a miracle for them not to win a 4th term in 2021, but the question is, will they bottle it and back out of a 2nd referendum, for which a lot of people won for them by lending their vote to them in May 2016 (bear in mind, a lot of us who are pro-YES are not natural SNP supporters and about 35-40% voted Leave in 2016).

 

I'm not a betting man, but I'd say it's even money that Krankie MacMerkel shytes herself and backs out of holding "Indyref2", then guided by her patriarch Murrell, goes into the 2021 election with some guff about "stronger for Scotland", knowing they'll likely win the most seats at a canter, but lose the pro-independence majority - and thus lose the mandate - which would take the pressure off them, while allowing them free reign to remain in power for the foreseeable.

 

Not only will Unionists pounce upon her and say she was bluffing after all, I dare say the grassroots independence movement will crucify her for betrayal, after they pushed for the mandate in light of the "material change in circumstances" of Brexit. Of course, I could be wrong, but I think the SNP leadership come across as a lukewarm (maybe even controlled opposition - if the IRA were infiltrated, then do you really think the independence movement haven't been?) and have given more thought behind the scenes to staying in power until 2026, than they have about achieving the party's original ultimate goal.

[robbojunior]

So, now that the SNP conference has been and gone, what are the verdicts?

 

While I acknowledge the argument that they should wait until the "fog of Brexit clears", the SNP leadership seem very comfortable in their (for now) impregnable position as gatekeepers at Holyrood. It would take a miracle for them not to win a 4th term in 2021, but the question is, will they bottle it and back out of a 2nd referendum, for which a lot of people won for them by lending their vote to them in May 2016 (bear in mind, a lot of us who are pro-YES are not natural SNP supporters and about 35-40% voted Leave in 2016).

 

I'm not a betting man, but I'd say it's even money that Krankie MacMerkel shytes herself and backs out of holding "Indyref2", then guided by her patriarch Murrell, goes into the 2021 election with some guff about "stronger for Scotland", knowing they'll likely win the most seats at a canter, but lose the pro-independence majority - and thus lose the mandate - which would take the pressure off them, while allowing them free reign to remain in power for the foreseeable.

 

Not only will Unionists pounce upon her and say she was bluffing after all, I dare say the grassroots independence movement will crucify her for betrayal, after they pushed for the mandate in light of the "material change in circumstances" of Brexit. Of course, I could be wrong, but I think the SNP leadership come across as a lukewarm (maybe even controlled opposition - if the IRA were infiltrated, then do you really think the independence movement haven't been?) and have given more thought behind the scenes to staying in power until 2026, than they have about achieving the party's original ultimate goal.

 

I dinna think it's as complex as you.

I just think they will wait until they think they are in a position where they can win a second referendum before they announce one.

 

At the moment they know if they called one, they would lose.  Seems like a sensible strategy to me.

[Jocky Balboa]

I dinna think it's as complex as you.

I just think they will wait until they think they are in a position where they can win a second referendum before they announce one.

 

At the moment they know if they called one, they would lose.  Seems like a sensible strategy to me.

 

Fair enough, I agree that they shouldn't rush in, but I don't think she should call another referendum on the back of the EU either. As a YES/Leave voter I would still vote YES and deal with the EU later, but some don't share that enthusiasm and may abstain, or even go the other way. That *may* explain how the polls are stuck in the late-40's (though I and almost everyone I know do not know anyone who has participated in any of these 1000-strong "opinion polls", which given the law of averages and almost constant polling from 2012 until now, is dubious in itself). That said, whatever side we're all on, I'm sure most will agree that the case for independence has to stand on its own merits and NOT be tied too closely to retaining/regaining EU membership (I'd say EEA/EFTA is the best option).

[Parklife]

Krankie MacMerkel

The rest of your post may have been interesting. I stopped reading here though. There's little point engaging with someone who spouts such nonsense

[Bluto10]

politics \ independence

 

 

LOL

[Jocky Balboa]

I read Craig Murray's blog with interest the other day, I have to admit. He is quite right to call Sturgeon out for her gallivanting with Remainers to "stop Brexit" rather than furthering the case for independence.

 

At the end of the day, England and Wales voted to leave the EU and that should be respected and contrary to what sections of the media say, I don't see any hard evidence that they would vote differently if/when a "People's Vote" happened (seriously, who do they think voted last time, hyenas? Space aliens?). If it did overturn the result, I've no doubt the next GE would result in a Tory/UKIP/DUP alliance (I see no hard evidence that Corbyn will be PM, though god help us all if the self-confessed Marxists Corbyn and McDonnell ever got in power) which would force another vote, and an eventual EU exit.

 

IMHO the SNP leadership need to face up to the fact England and Wales are going one way, and the choices, however difficult from a sentimental point of view, are still clear; does Northern Ireland remain in a UK out of Europe, or join the Republic and remain in the EU (demographics comfortably suggest the latter is almost inevitable) and does Scotland accept being overruled on Europe for the sake of the Union, or choose independence and renegotiate with Europe (I'd prefer EEA/EFTA like Norway, Iceland and Switzerland myself).

[afc_blockhead]

Second referendum will be a waste of time unfortunately.

 

People in Scotland have already proven they are too lazy, too feart, too stupid or just plain too in love with the myth of empire.

 

Will be the same result or maybe even more votes for the NO side.

 

Ah the old paint those who want independence as brave intelligent people argument (I presume you are suggesting they are the opposite to the above bit in bold!)

 

Maybe Independence voters are too fucking thick and in love with the braveheart type myth of "ah the English bastards want to crush us" etc to see through SNP bullshit and to see that no massively strong factual arguments exist for independence being the intelligent move.

 

I'll tell you this, I have met a shitload of independence obsessives who are incredibly thick.

 

How's that white paper looking now with the benefit of hindsight? I'll tell you, it's a load of guff which focused its "argument" on the oil industry hitting record numbers in the last few years ... how did that go? 

 

Do you think it was an innocent mistake in publishing those numbers as fact? Of course not, the SNP are trustworthy regular people like you right? ... 

[Clydeside_Sheep]

I'm finished with the SNP

Red pilled! Way to go MT!

[Clydeside_Sheep]

furthering the case for independence.

They have done nothing to this end, imo, since losing the 2014 vote.  Havent even begun to address the problems with that pitch, which indicates a fundamental lack of confidence and ideas.

 

They have done OK at keeping a brave face on, but that vote really took the wind from their sails.

 

All the current regime does is praise itself as 'world leading', but no-one is fooled.

 

If Brexit delivers the benefits which scotland deserves, (wrt fishing etc), then they will really be up against it.

 

god help us all if the self-confessed Marxists Corbyn and McDonnell ever got in power

Agreed, but why would anyone averse to marxism be pro an independent Scotland or pro-EU? Both are / would be bastions of marxism, just as ireland has succumbed to it, thanks to marxist republicanism and the EU.  (as well as the modern incompetence of the Church).

 

does Northern Ireland remain in a UK out of Europe, or join the Republic and remain in the EU (demographics comfortably suggest the latter is almost inevitable)

 

Yes, westminster wants shot of it and no wonder.  An expensive exercise in nothing.

I am friendly with some NI people whose background would suggest they are NI unionists, but they have applied for irish passports.

The writings on the wall.

We in Scotland need to ensure we dont get arlene foster and co moving here afterwards.  

[boboisared]

A vote for independence is not a vote for SNP...

 

I despise the way Sturgeon has gone with the SNP, but I'd vote for an independent Scotland.

 

We would have more of a voice being alone if truth be told.

Yeah. Not a hard concept to grasp really.

[afc_blockhead]

A vote for independence is not a vote for SNP...

 

I despise the way Sturgeon has gone with the SNP, but I'd vote for an independent Scotland.

 

We would have more of a voice being alone if truth be told.

 

I agree with your first statement to an extent. However I know very few big supporters of independence who aren't equally big SNP fans, make of that what you will.

[boboisared]

I agree with your first statement to an extent. However I know very few big supporters of independence who aren't equally big SNP fans, make of that what you will.

Why do you think many are SNP fans?

 

A means to an end.

[Poodler]

Tea time is what I call Supper time

 

Dinner time is lunch time

Supper time I assume to be around 17.00

 

When I was growing up we used to play football at Sluie Park in dyce. Top floor flat Belrorie Circle lived a family plagued by issues (loon did time for sexual assault, his ma dobbed him in)

 

He would be playing fitba with us and from the gods you would hear 'CRAIG, COME'N GET YER SUPPER' as his ma was screaming out the window a few hundred feet away.

 

I vowed if I ever made an album, the intro to the first song (a fast paced punk rock explosion) would be done by his ma shouting that.

[muttonhumper]

If Brexit delivers the benefits which scotland deserves, (wrt fishing etc), then they will really be up against it.

 

Brexit will be delivering unfettered EU access to Scotland's fishing waters.

 

Not quite the result the Tory supporting fishermen were after.

 

More fool them, as it was the Tories who decimated Scottish fishing in the 70's when Heath signed up to the CFP.

[Jocky Balboa]

Clydeside Sheep, ever the articulate opponent, I agree with much of what you say, except to clarify that while the Republicans (Sinn Fein in particular) in the North of Ireland are largely of a repugnant Marxist variety, the two main parties in the Republic (Fianna Fail and Fine Gael) are centrist and centre-right respectively. Ironically SF, while claiming to be the top dog for reunification, are actually the biggest liability holding it back, not just because of their (P)IRA affiliations, but in their loony left policies.

 

I'd hate to think Scotland would be a leftist bastion post-independence (and I agree with the fledgling Scottish Libertarian Party in rejecting that consensus that we're supposedly a Socialist country) but I concede that Sturgeon and Murrell are keen to push that line, and like SF they are becoming a liability to progress.

 

I've said it since the first referendum campaign and will say it again, unless we win (the former SNP heartlands of) middle Scotland, as well as the small 'c' conservative types, independence doesn't stand a chance of happening.

[Jocky Balboa]

As a side note, I recommend reading the Scottish Libertarian Party website. Their leader Tam Laird is ex-SNP and they recently recruited a former SNP Councillor. While some will argue their best chance of a breakthrough will be after independence, I disagree, because IMHO the most influential demographic for the foreseeable will be the YES/Leave contingent (apparently 35-40% of SNP voters) who have all disgracefully been sidelined by Sturgeon/Murrell et al. There is a compelling case for independence outside the EU a la EEA/EFTA and they may well be the ones to make it.

[Clydeside_Sheep]

Clydeside Sheep, ever the articulate opponent, I agree with much of what you say, except to clarify that while the Republicans (Sinn Fein in particular) in the North of Ireland are largely of a repugnant Marxist variety, the two main parties in the Republic (Fianna Fail and Fine Gael) are centrist and centre-right respectively. Ironically SF, while claiming to be the top dog for reunification, are actually the biggest liability holding it back, not just because of their (P)IRA affiliations, but in their loony left policies.

 

I'd hate to think Scotland would be a leftist bastion post-independence (and I agree with the fledgling Scottish Libertarian Party in rejecting that consensus that we're supposedly a Socialist country) but I concede that Sturgeon and Murrell are keen to push that line, and like SF they are becoming a liability to progress.

 

I've said it since the first referendum campaign and will say it again, unless we win (the former SNP heartlands of) middle Scotland, as well as the small 'c' conservative types, independence doesn't stand a chance of happening.

Good post, agree with much of that, especially about SF. Their nationalism is only the type which marxists allow as a temporary means to an end.

 

I see the other parties you mention are starting to expand into the north, another sign of what is coming.

 

They too however, are increasingly marxist due to irelands "love in" with the EU.

 

From my outside perspective, everything Vardkar's Government does is pro-the EU as an institution, rather than Ireland as a nation. Even he himself as a person is symbolic in this regard.

 

He dismantles anything unique to ireland in favour of toeing the line of his overlords. Ironically, it seems many in ireland MTV generations think this represents modernity and sophistication.

[Clydeside_Sheep]

As a side note, I recommend reading the Scottish Libertarian Party website. Their leader Tam Laird is ex-SNP and they recently recruited a former SNP Councillor. While some will argue their best chance of a breakthrough will be after independence, I disagree, because IMHO the most influential demographic for the foreseeable will be the YES/Leave contingent (apparently 35-40% of SNP voters) who have all disgracefully been sidelined by Sturgeon/Murrell et al. There is a compelling case for independence outside the EU a la EEA/EFTA and they may well be the ones to make it.

Thanks i will check it out.

If we must be independent (and I think its far from inevitable) then an independent nation outside the EU would be my pref.

[NEM]

Brexit will be delivering unfettered EU access to Scotland's fishing waters.

 

Not quite the result the Tory supporting fishermen were after.

 

More fool them, as it was the Tories who decimated Scottish fishing in the 70's when Heath signed up to the CFP.

 

 

Under Mays sellout maybe, we're heading for a no deal though when parliament boot her "deal" out

[muttonhumper]

Under Mays sellout maybe, we're heading for a no deal though when parliament boot her "deal" out

 

 

Yeah, I'd think that was a certainty.

[SheepieBaaBaa]

Worth of Scottish exports to rest of UK: £48.5 billion

Worth of Scottish exports to EU: £11.6 billion

 

Number of Scottish jobs linked to UK market: 1,000,000

Number of Scottish jobs linked to EU marker: 250,000

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/29/gordon-brown-tells-scots-uks-single-market-worth-far-more-than-e/

 

Why do the SNP seek to harm our economy by cutting off access to our main market, while pretending that the EU single market is the be all and end all?

Exports to the rest of the UK likely to continue regardless. Exports to EU may not.

 

I don't intend to debate the topic, you should just educate yourself rather than spouting misplaced and misrepresentative statistics.

[For Fecks Sake]

Brexit will be delivering unfettered EU access to Scotland's fishing waters.

 

Not quite the result the Tory supporting fishermen were after.

 

More fool them, as it was the Tories who decimated Scottish fishing in the 70's when Heath signed up to the CFP.

If Scotland gained its independence and we went back into the EU as the SNP have said they would do, would it not be the case that the EU would still have unfettered access to our waters though?

 

So Brexit or no Brexit and Independence or remain the EU will have the same access as they already have or am I missing something?

[mcdougall(4)]

Exports to the rest of the UK likely to continue regardless. Exports to EU may not.

 

I don't intend to debate the topic, you should just educate yourself rather than spouting misplaced and misrepresentative statistics.

 

So you think that an independent Scotland would have the same access to the rUk market as it currently does?

[Redforever86]

So you think that an independent Scotland would have the same access to the rUk market as it currently does?

Yeah we’d get a free trade deal, worst case scenario WTO rules.

[mcdougall(4)]

Yeah we’d get a free trade deal, worst case scenario WTO rules.

Brexiteer 101 from Granville here

Chapeau