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Henry

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17 minutes ago, maryhilldon said:

These fuckin scientists need to get back in their box.  Absolute doom mongers. 

I've no problem with them making predictions. But it's very annoying that nobody seems to revisit past predictions to see how accurate they were. We shouldn't be listening to anyone who has a history of being wrong, we should be giving airtime to those who have got things right.

If there are no consequences to getting it wrong people will continue to get it wrong.

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25 minutes ago, Ramandu said:

I've no problem with them making predictions. But it's very annoying that nobody seems to revisit past predictions to see how accurate they were. We shouldn't be listening to anyone who has a history of being wrong, we should be giving airtime to those who have got things right.

If there are no consequences to getting it wrong people will continue to get it wrong.

See the DWT thread

  • Haha 1
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23 minutes ago, Ramandu said:

I've no problem with them making predictions. But it's very annoying that nobody seems to revisit past predictions to see how accurate they were. We shouldn't be listening to anyone who has a history of being wrong, we should be giving airtime to those who have got things right.

If there are no consequences to getting it wrong people will continue to get it wrong.

You fail to understand the nature of medicine in general that has been the case for the past 30 years or so. Clinicians have become conditioned to be totally risk averse, in a world inhabited by an ever litigious public. 

 

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2 hours ago, daytripping said:

We're down to 4 new cases, 5 yesterday. Just about wiped it out in time for the travel ban to end. Queue minks from glasgow and the central belt arriving to infect us again. Should never be a nationwide thing, each area on merit is clearly the way to go.

Haha . Eh shall be up there in a few days. :dance:

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48 minutes ago, Ten Caat said:

You fail to understand the nature of medicine in general that has been the case for the past 30 years or so. Clinicians have become conditioned to be totally risk averse, in a world inhabited by an ever litigious public. 

 

I'd have thought there would be a decent feedback loop in medicine?

In other areas it's non existent. Media, politics, academia all give attention to those who make bold or eye-catching predictions. But nobody keeps score on these predictions, so it's impossible to tell the difference between noisy bluffers and people with genuine insight.

Been reading some of the superforecasters stuff, and the number one way to improve all this is to keep score.

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3 hours ago, manboobs109 said:

I'm going to make a prediction. Come autumn Sturgeon will decide we need a 'short sharp lockdown' because of rising numbers. Boris will refuse to fund furlough and there will be lots of squabbling and chat about how we don't have control of all the levers etc.

Bookmarked

Aye like the "2 week circuit breaker" at Christmas we're about to gradually start coming out of next week.  Farce

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19 hours ago, manboobs109 said:

Yeah nae bother Africa, just have it for free, forget the hundreds of millions it would have cost to invent and manufacture, you just go ahead and have it for nowt. These companies are almost doing the vaccines at cost anyway, the profits and dividends are from the huge range of other good things they've designed to save lives. Why shouldn't they profit. Why doesn't Africa invent its own one instead of putting the begging bowl out.

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48 minutes ago, daytripping said:

Yeah nae bother Africa, just have it for free, forget the hundreds of millions it would have cost to invent and manufacture, you just go ahead and have it for nowt. These companies are almost doing the vaccines at cost anyway, the profits and dividends are from the huge range of other good things they've designed to save lives. Why shouldn't they profit. Why doesn't Africa invent its own one instead of putting the begging bowl out.

You got yours for free

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23 minutes ago, tutankamun said:

Triple mutant strain in India :laughing:

Not even sure what that means but it sounds really bad. Lockdown 

330,000 positive tests today.

Over 2,000 deaths everyday but it's obvious that's way under reported.

Saw a clip on the news where they are burning bodies on the street because the crematoriums are at capacity.

Can only get worse.

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1 minute ago, Joe pike said:

330,000 positive tests today.

Over 2,000 deaths everyday but it's obvious that's way under reported.

Saw a clip on the news where they are burning bodies on the street because the crematoriums are at capacity.

Can only get worse.

Is it because the virus is worse or because India’s a fucking midden and their health system is inadequate? Running out of oxygen and the likes...

Of course their deaths are underreported due to their caste system, a lot of the population are not even classed as humans.

I read on Twitter (I know!) that it was the Kent variant that is rife over there, which could make sense due to our historical  ties with India.

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