Europe 21/22

[frankie_mac's_4]

I wouldn't read anything into UEFA rankings outwith the bigger clubs at all. It's a convoluted fucking nonsense designed to fast track clubs from favoured countries onto TV.

As is all european competitions - a repetitive process to generate and retain TV revenue among the select few

[Tord31]

We want AEL to win all the way. Qarabag have got a good record

AEL 2-0 on thursday

[aberdeen1970]

53 minutes ago, frankie_mac's_4 said:

I wouldn't read anything into UEFA rankings outwith the bigger clubs at all. It's a convoluted fucking nonsense designed to fast track clubs from favoured countries onto TV.

As is all european competitions - a repetitive process to generate and retain TV revenue among the select few

Exactly min.  The country coefficients skew the rankings completely.  The club points on their own would be a better measurable 

[perthshirered]

4 hours ago, RedRichard said:

not so, both Sporting and Real Sociedad are significantly higher than Qarabag. The ranking is clearly not a foolproof measure of quality, useful to augment with their European and domestic league form of most recent year. We have a great chance, though if I was DC I'd speculate to accumulate with a key signing (#7) before the PO round. 

Qarabags coefficient is a more true reflection of their ability though, none of this gifting of points simply for being Spanish /Portuguese. They will provide a very stern test,one which we are unlikely to overcome. 

[WesthillWanderersFC]

4 hours ago, RedRichard said:

not so, both Sporting and Real Sociedad are significantly higher than Qarabag. The ranking is clearly not a foolproof measure of quality, useful to augment with their European and domestic league form of most recent year. We have a great chance, though if I was DC I'd speculate to accumulate with a key signing (#7) before the PO round. 

Sporting are, yes. 
Real Sociedad are a good bit below.Qarabag. 

 

[G31DON]

Qarabag have had the benefit of champions seeding for the previous 7 seasons, while playing really poor teams in the early rounds. They have picked up points v utter dross to boost their coefficient. Fuck these cunts, they're not even European. 

[muttonhumper]

8 hours ago, G31DON said:

Qarabag have had the benefit of champions seeding for the previous 7 seasons, while playing really poor teams in the early rounds. They have picked up points v utter dross to boost their coefficient.  

Correct, their position in the rankings is skewed big style.

Since 2009 in 11 qualifying attempts they have reached group stages once.

With a 2-2 away goals win v an average Copenhagen side.

All other participation in the group stages has been from doggy chance after losing in the CL, finish bottom 4 times and 3rd on 3 occasions. 

So they have competed in groups last 7 years, but as mentioned, as CL losers each time, bar one.

 

2 years ago they scraped into EL after away goals win v Linfield in PO, losing 3-2 in Belfast.

Last season Molde (who finished 19 points off top last season) of Norway knocked them out of CL, and in their doggy chance in a not particularly tough EL group they took 1 point out of 18.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qarabağ_FK_in_European_football

 

[afc1903mad]

The rankings can't be skewed if their getting beat in the group stage. seems they are a team that benefits from regularly securing a place in Europe and then have the benefit of dropping into the EL

They are currently on 18 points (was 21 last season) and if we beat them in the PO round, they'll be on 18.5 pouints, so they appear to be not the team they once were. Next year, their 6 point season drops out, so they'll drop further (unless they win some group games this year)

Qarabag FK    Azb    6.00    3.00    4.00    3.00    2.00    18.000

 

[Betty Swallicks]

2 hours ago, muttonhumper said:

Correct, their position in the rankings is skewed big style.

 

You can say it as many times as you like min but Qarabag are favourites to progress. They are even slight favourites to win in Cyprus.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/uefa-europa-conference-league/ael-limassol-v-qarabag/winner

[muttonhumper]

28 minutes ago, Betty Swallicks said:

You can say it as many times as you like min but Qarabag are favourites to progress. They are even slight favourites to win in Cyprus.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/uefa-europa-conference-league/ael-limassol-v-qarabag/winner

Never said they were nae favourites wi' the bookies. At any time. Though they got heaps of the last round wrong, and are probably using same duff ranking information to compile their odds.

Just that they are naewie near as strong as their position in bizarre and laughably constructed ranking system suggests.

We'll soon find oot.

 

I'd be going to that game if the Dons match didn't start too soon after the finish. 

Going to watch it in the pub though, then 5 minute walk back to hoose for Dons KO.

[Betty Swallicks]

5 minutes ago, muttonhumper said:

Never said they were nae favourites wi' the bookies. At any time. Though they got heaps of the last round wrong, and are probably using same duff ranking information to compile their odds.

Just that they are naewie near as strong as their position in bizarre and laughably constructed ranking system suggests.

We'll soon find oot.

 

I'd be going to that game if the Dons match didn't start too soon after the finish. 

Going to watch it in the pub though, then 5 minute walk back to hoose for Dons KO.

You've insinuated AEL were favourites by posting several times (and continue to do) regarding the potentially flawed ranking system. 

My point is the ranking (flawed or not) make Qarabag the favs and the bookies do too.

Qarabag are favs to progress! End of!

 

[afc1903mad]

2 minutes ago, Betty Swallicks said:

You've insinuated AEL were favourites by posting several times (and continue to do) regarding the potentially flawed ranking system. 

My point is the ranking (flawed or not) make Qarabag the favs and the bookies do too.

Qarabag are favs to progress! End of!

 

The seeding is just an indicator and not a guarantee.

15 unseeded sides progressed the last round putting out the "seeded" favourites, noneless than our opponents tomorrow.

We've also put out seeded sides in years gone by as well..

I'm not a gambler, but from what I've seen bookies odds are based on the spread (or expected spread) of bets, based on historical results to an extent, its again, no guarantee of future success.

 

Having watched the highlights of the AEL game and the Qarabag game, Qarabag looked the poorer side and rusty as their season had not yet started, whilst AEL Limassol loked sharper and the better side. I think it might be close between them two

[Ramandu]

5 minutes ago, afc1903mad said:

The seeding is just an indicator and not a guarantee.

15 unseeded sides progressed the last round putting out the "seeded" favourites, noneless than our opponents tomorrow.

We've also put out seeded sides in years gone by as well..

I'm not a gambler, but from what I've seen bookies odds are based on the spread (or expected spread) of bets, based on historical results to an extent, its again, no guarantee of future success.

 

Having watched the highlights of the AEL game and the Qarabag game, Qarabag looked the poorer side and rusty as their season had not yet started, whilst AEL Limassol loked sharper and the better side. I think it might be close between them two

Being a favourite isn't a guarantee either. If there are four teams who are 75% likely to go through, and one of them goes out, that doesn't mean the odds were wrong, it means they were right. 

[muttonhumper]

20 minutes ago, Betty Swallicks said:

You've insinuated AEL were favourites by posting several times (and continue to do) regarding the potentially flawed ranking system. 

My point is the ranking (flawed or not) make Qarabag the favs and the bookies do too.

Qarabag are favs to progress! End of!

I've not insinuated anything.

I'm stating that Qarabag are overrated by many on this thread, by the rankings and by the bookies.

I'm also stating that Cypriot football is being underrated to a similar extent.

I've already illustrated this clearly to be the case earlier throughout this thread and my reasoning is also clearly explained, and backed up with personal experience of watching both performing at close quarters over the last 2/3 years.

 

The bookies had Briedablik 10/1 away and 4/1 at home to win their games v Austrians.

They also had us at 6/4 against to beat Hacken at Pittodrie. A game we won 5-1.

They are relying on guesswork as much as you or I.

 

 

 

[afc1903mad]

1 minute ago, Ramandu said:

Being a favourite isn't a guarantee either. If there are four teams who are 75% likely to go through, and one of them goes out, that doesn't mean the odds were wrong, it means they were right. 

I agree, there are no guarantees in football.

Not sure how you work out the percentages though

[muttonhumper]

23 minutes ago, afc1903mad said:

Having watched the highlights of the AEL game and the Qarabag game, Qarabag looked the poorer side and rusty as their season had not yet started, whilst AEL Limassol loked sharper and the better side. I think it might be close between them two

Neither have started their league season yet.

Azerbaijani Premier League kicks off on 14th August, though Qarabag, like Neftchi, have had their games postponed. One must assume to assist with Euro campaigns.

Cyprus First Division starts the weekend after, on the 21st.

 

Perhaps some sort of advantage to us if we get through given their game time?

I'm not convinced that this, as some would suggest, is really that great a factor in the outcome.

[afc1903mad]

5 minutes ago, muttonhumper said:

Neither have started their league season yet.

Azerbaijani Premier League kicks off on 14th August, though Qarabag, like Neftchi, have had their games postponed. One must assume to assist with Euro campaigns.

Cyprus First Division starts the weekend after, on the 21st.

 

Perhaps some sort of advantage to us if we get through given their game time?

I'm not convinced that this, as some would suggest, is really that great a factor in the outcome.

Ah, fair enough, must've misread some friendlies they have had with other Cypriot teams

[muttonhumper]

3 hours ago, afc1903mad said:

The rankings can't be skewed if their getting beat in the group stage. seems they are a team that benefits from regularly securing a place in Europe and then have the benefit of dropping into the EL

They are currently on 18 points (was 21 last season) and if we beat them in the PO round, they'll be on 18.5 pouints, so they appear to be not the team they once were. Next year, their 6 point season drops out, so they'll drop further (unless they win some group games this year)

Qarabag FK    Azb    6.00    3.00    4.00    3.00    2.00    18.000

 

 

Similar with Cypriot side APOEL who are ranked 10 places better than Qarabag at 59.

10 places ahead of Qarabag, and finished 8th in Cypriot 1st Division last season .

They were 25 points behind AEL at league split after 26 games.

 

[Ramandu]

18 minutes ago, afc1903mad said:

I agree, there are no guarantees in football.

Not sure how you work out the percentages though

If someone has a three in four chance of going through, I'd expect them not to go through one in four times.

Odds are a way of expressing how likely an event is to happen. But because that event only happens once, its outcome isn't enough to tell you whether the odds were accurate or not. Instead you have to look at the predictions/results of lots of events.

[afc1903mad]

1 hour ago, Ramandu said:

If someone has a three in four chance of going through, I'd expect them not to go through one in four times.

Odds are a way of expressing how likely an event is to happen. But because that event only happens once, its outcome isn't enough to tell you whether the odds were accurate or not. Instead you have to look at the predictions/results of lots of events.

No two games are the same, even between the same teams.

At one point we were 100% to get a win against Kilmarnock, but then "The Craig Thomson Show" decided to send Devlin off in the 4th minute.

There's nothing to say your 75% chance of going through, they could win far more than 3 games before they are knocked out. I get how percentages work, but not in a variable such as football 

[DelMonte]

16 hours ago, Millertime said:

It doesn't

You can't just blanketly say, "we had 8 chances and we didn't qualify for the groups once "

THATS thick

If we were drawn against 8 shit teams and got put out each time by a shit team, then yeah, you would have a point

But we weren't so you don't

I never said we didn’t qualify for the groups. We never even made it to the fucking play off round. 
 

Had plenty chances to get to the play off, 8 infact, and McInnes couldn’t do it once. A massive blot on his record. 

[Ramandu]

24 minutes ago, afc1903mad said:

No two games are the same, even between the same teams.

At one point we were 100% to get a win against Kilmarnock, but then "The Craig Thomson Show" decided to send Devlin off in the 4th minute.

There's nothing to say your 75% chance of going through, they could win far more than 3 games before they are knocked out. I get how percentages work, but not in a variable such as football 

Wasn't 100% then.

Probability still exists, even when you don't know for sure what the probability is. 

Chance of rolling a 6 on a die is 17%, and we can all be confident about that. Chance of Qarabag going through is unknown. There is a real answer, but we can't be certain we know what it is. If you or I had a stab at it, the result of the tie wouldn't prove us right or wrong. Best way is to mark lots of predictions to see whether our 75% probabilities come off 75% of the time.

Probability is absolutely applicable to football, and pretty much any event in the world.

[Betty Swallicks]

3 hours ago, muttonhumper said:

I've not insinuated anything.

I'm stating that Qarabag are overrated by many on this thread, by the rankings and by the bookies.

I'm also stating that Cypriot football is being underrated to a similar extent.

I've already illustrated this clearly to be the case earlier throughout this thread and my reasoning is also clearly explained, and backed up with personal experience of watching both performing at close quarters over the last 2/3 years.

 

The bookies had Briedablik 10/1 away and 4/1 at home to win their games v Austrians.

They also had us at 6/4 against to beat Hacken at Pittodrie. A game we won 5-1.

They are relying on guesswork as much as you or I.

 

 

 

Thats clearly bollocks though. 

Jesus fuck min. 

There is more chance of Qarabag progressing than AEL. End of!

[thurso]

3 hours ago, DelMonte said:

I never said we didn’t qualify for the groups. We never even made it to the fucking play off round. 
 

Had plenty chances to get to the play off, 8 infact, and McInnes couldn’t do it once. A massive blot on his record. 

I really don’t want to agree with millertime but I think your being very harsh there 

[DelMonte]

3 hours ago, thurso said:

I really don’t want to agree with millertime but I think your being very harsh there 

Why?
 

Limassol away, pitful performance. Rejika the second time round, total embarrassment over both legs. Fucked it against Kairat. 
 

I didn’t expect us to win all them games or event the majority but to lose every year without even reaching the play off was embarrassing. 

[RUL]

5 hours ago, Betty Swallicks said:

Thats clearly bollocks though. 

Jesus fuck min. 

There is more chance of Qarabag progressing than AEL. End of!

Fair play to you, put yourself under pressure here. 

[thurso]

21 minutes ago, DelMonte said:

Why?
 

Limassol away, pitful performance. Rejika the second time round, total embarrassment over both legs. Fucked it against Kairat. 
 

I didn’t expect us to win all them games or event the majority but to lose every year without even reaching the play off was embarrassing. 

So that’s 3 out of 8 you recon we should of won but didn’t. In reality only Limassol is the only one that we should of won we were underdogs if I recall in the others 

[muttonhumper]

12 hours ago, Betty Swallicks said:

Thats clearly bollocks though. 

Jesus fuck min. 

There is more chance of Qarabag progressing than AEL. End of!

?

[DelMonte]

8 hours ago, thurso said:

So that’s 3 out of 8 you recon we should of won but didn’t. In reality only Limassol is the only one that we should of won we were underdogs if I recall in the others 

So you think it’s acceptable to be underdog in 8 matches and lose them all? Would you just say that if we lost 8 on the spin to Celtic? 
 

We had good chances to reach the play offs but we played terrible. If we played better we’d have done it. I also forgot Maribor. They were absolutely shite.

[Geoff_Tipps]

I still get angry thinking back to the Maribor away game. Perhaps the worst performance I have ever seen by a referee.